James Bond and the Middle East markets

We’ve seen quite a bit in 2010, haven’t we, and if you ask me it’s almost been like watching a James Bond Movie with its high points, creepy suspense and finally the ‘good guy saves the world’ moments. Scandals, unexpected stock market busts, political turmoil, bad guys beating up the good guy and finally histories (sporting) being created. Over the Christmas weekend, I was having lunch with a friend and we got into discussing the same and comparing the stock market with a action thriller movie and here’s the thought.

You're watching a thriller, you laugh at the happy moments, lose interest at the slow dragging dialogues and then when the suspense creeps in and the movie twists and turns, it scares the living daylights out of you. The movie could as well be called “The Middle East stock Market” and it wouldn’t be any different.

Ok, there are no blond babes and Daniel Craigs in tight shorts strutting around (thankfully) in our 3000Xtra/ Eikon terminals, but think of it laterally and you’ll find a action thriller storyline no different from DFM, ADX, Doha or Tadawul markets. In a Bond movie for example – we know what we’re getting into even before the movie begins, Bond is going to walk around with the coolest gadgets, hottest babes and get himself nearly killed (remember you nodded in agreement with the word ‘nearly’).

Take this classic James bond movie clip (Click Here) , Bond is all tied up and has a laser which is slowly going to cut him into two pieces and burn his “ahem! ahem!” off. Even if we have 30+ years of past James bond movies (stock market) data, which points out that James Bond cannot at any instance have his “ahem! Ahem!” burnt into fine dust particles; you still sit up at the edge and experience anxiety and tension, wondering ‘what next’.

Ever thought why this happens, and the only answer we could figure out was that , we experience this anxiety because in those 'moments', we're not only following the movie (stock market) with our eyes, but also our brain cells move into autopilot and an emotional brain takes over.. That means the intellectual brain goes into sleep mode and the emotional one takes complete control. Makes sense?

When we’re watching the movie (market), we’re not thinking of the long term, we’re sucked into thinking of the moment and we get drawn into the emotion and struggle to see the big picture. If the movie shifts from being a James Bond movie to watching ‘Dracula’, what would be the reaction - we hold our partner’s hand tightly (strictly speaking it may not be the way it happens in the market situation). Ok, maybe you don’t hold your partners hand, you probably just close your eyes..right?

I think its great advise when someone says with reference to the market that - Get out of the momentary reaction (short term) and focus on the big picture (long term), its also great advise when someone tells us to supplement emotion with intelligence when handling the stock market…but hey, it would make the whole James Bond movie one heck of a bore!!!

All this year end intellectual exercise is fine, but hey what’s a good ol’ action thriller without enjoying its moments :)

Happy New Year 2011 to all of you,

The Extinction of Homo sapiens FinancialMarketus Arabia

This bipedal primate (Homo Sapiens FinancialMarketus Arabia) used to occupy large tracts of the Arabian Peninsula during the great boom years of easy credit. The Lehman bomb followed by the subsequent Nano Aktomic Eliminator Bomb (also known as the Naakel Bomb) dropped in the region resulted in the virtual extinction, migration or mutation of a large number of this sub species. An analysis of this species and sub species in greater detail led us to identify certain distinct migration and extinction patterns.

By definition ‘Extinction’ is the end of an organism or species. They become extinct when they are no longer able to thrive in the changed environment. Before we begin, here's a bit on the ‘Homo Sapiens Financiual Marketus’ - They were a prolific talking, good looking species, well fed and the mature ones developed beautiful feathers around themselves. During their hey days, they took an exceptional interest in dressing themselves up in finery (brands) to attract prey and mates.

The Extinct/ Migrated Species

• IPO Lead Managers - With the way the markets have been headed this summer, there is no realistic chance that we will find them in the region till around 2020, It is predicted by experts that the last of the few healthy remaining species of this class will starve to death or migrate to by the end of this summer.
• Foreign Institutional investors - They vanished by the end of 2009 from the GCC region. A few of them were seen eking a living by putting whatever AUM remained with them in emerging markets and some printing press stocks in the United states
• Real Estate Fund Managers - Scientifically they should have been renamed locusts – wikipedia defines locusts as ‘a species that can breed rapidly under suitable conditions and subsequently become gregarious and migratory. They form bands and rapidly strip fields and people. They have migrated after leaving a trail of destruction across the gulf region
• The ‘Oh I get a skin rash unless I wear Armani’ Hedge Fund Managers - In the late part of 19th century, this species roamed a certain parts of United States dressed in Stetson, cowboy boots and six gun. In the GCC a few years back these Jacksons, oh I meant these Texans…oops, I meant Hedge Managers were found in plenty investing in one hare brained scheme after the other. The last of this breed now survive in some parts of a place known as Abu Zaby.

Bomb radiation Mutated Species

Nature has an amazing way of evolving newer species from the old. Guess that’s life. The following have been found in large numbers in the region. We believe it is a mutated version of the old species.

• Chinese ‘looking’ Investment managers - Remember, they just look the part. At one instance, we found that one of them turned out to be actually the Nepali security guard of the investment bank who was given a suit by the CEO and taken for his press meetings and pow wow with local HNIs for announcing his Shariah compliant Asian Equity Fund. Today this security guard/fund manager is considered among the top Asian market experts residing in the middle east region.
• Commodities Experts - Suddenly the guy whom you knew as a equity day trader pops up with a visiting card saying Biriyani Rice & Pulses Portfolio Manager for Blue chip asset manager co.He confessed privately to us that he did not lie in the interview to get the job, he just said ‘yes’ and was not allowed to elaborate his answer to a question on ‘Does he have several years of experience in buying of these products,
• ETF Experts - Before the Bomb blast they were hidden away in the back office of a mutual fund and had not even managed to generate a proper NAV weekly is now going to give you an intraday NAV. Now they are ETF structuring experts who plan to generate Real time NAVs.
• Charitable Institution Development Manager - This has been one of Nature’s most interesting mutation. The guy whom you saw as a Private Banker/HNI relationship manager just before the bomb dropped is now chasing you for a meeting to show you some pictures of children starving in third world countries, and ask for some money. Same begging bowl in a different garb, nature’s wonders.

At a time of this economic uncertainty and daily flat stock market pain, we all need some comic relief. What is written above is to be taken only in a light hearted way. What is written above is in no way real and any resemblances to people who are living, extinct or mutated is purely accidental :-)