The day I met Dubai in hospital

It was a cold November morning last year and I was on my way to meet my friend ‘Dubai' at the hospital Intensive care. I had heard of his ill health and it came as a shocker to me (and a lot of us) that such a healthy looking person from the outside could have been so terminally ill on the inside. A debt restructuring consultant friend of mine who was part of the team tending to him at the ICU had said he was in the weakest condition they had ever seen a patient of this category.

As I walked into the hospital on that day, I could see a team of fund managers and bankers all standing outside the hospital and shouting in the top of their voice that they had been predicting this situation for my friend for the past 2 years, but no one had been listening!!!. I said to myself ‘That was not true, you guys may not have necessarily created this mess, but you didn’t help him in any way and only goaded him along into this path to the ICU’, but I kept quiet and didn’t want to add to the cacophony.

Today, a year had passed since that fatal day and I was on my way to meet my dear friend. It was a near miracle, Dubai had survived a very close shave with death and had lived to tell the tale. As I walked into Dubai’s residence, I could see the change. A couple of years back the same place was filled with blue/ black suited men with cheques waiting for signatures, now they were no more there. The suits had been asked to stay off for a while by the expert team of medics.

I spotted my friend resting in the shaded greens and on first glance it was evident, I was looking at a new Dubai in front of me. Gone was the naughtiness and innocence from those eyes and there seemed to be a sheet of boredom drawn over the eyes. He saw that I noticed the same and said “I know, the doctors (restructuring consultants) worked very hard, but there is no medication for bringing back a state of mind to its old self, medical science has only found cures to bring back the body to its old self, not the mind”. I nodded quietly. I knew what he was going through.

A year on, from the state I had seen him at the hospital when some of his Nakheel cells had turned cancerous and resulted in several more related complications, he was now physically back to his old healthy self. The team of consultants, bankers and Global lobbyists had worked tirelessly on him by bringing in infusion of new capital medication; undertaking continuous chemotherapy to remove the advanced real estate/ mortgage finance cancer cells. Importantly they also made him live a completely changed lifestyle away from the private equity vices.

As I was leaving the house later in the day, I reflected on what this Reborn Dubai had told me and thought; “Miraculously the body was almost back to the old self, but the mind …that may need more time to recover. The confidence had been shattered, and the only medication for treating that was time”

As they say in Spanish "El tiempo da beun consejo"....time will tell

(Disclaimer: These views are purely personal and do not in any way represent the views of my employer)

The Extinction of Homo sapiens FinancialMarketus Arabia

This bipedal primate (Homo Sapiens FinancialMarketus Arabia) used to occupy large tracts of the Arabian Peninsula during the great boom years of easy credit. The Lehman bomb followed by the subsequent Nano Aktomic Eliminator Bomb (also known as the Naakel Bomb) dropped in the region resulted in the virtual extinction, migration or mutation of a large number of this sub species. An analysis of this species and sub species in greater detail led us to identify certain distinct migration and extinction patterns.

By definition ‘Extinction’ is the end of an organism or species. They become extinct when they are no longer able to thrive in the changed environment. Before we begin, here's a bit on the ‘Homo Sapiens Financiual Marketus’ - They were a prolific talking, good looking species, well fed and the mature ones developed beautiful feathers around themselves. During their hey days, they took an exceptional interest in dressing themselves up in finery (brands) to attract prey and mates.

The Extinct/ Migrated Species

• IPO Lead Managers - With the way the markets have been headed this summer, there is no realistic chance that we will find them in the region till around 2020, It is predicted by experts that the last of the few healthy remaining species of this class will starve to death or migrate to by the end of this summer.
• Foreign Institutional investors - They vanished by the end of 2009 from the GCC region. A few of them were seen eking a living by putting whatever AUM remained with them in emerging markets and some printing press stocks in the United states
• Real Estate Fund Managers - Scientifically they should have been renamed locusts – wikipedia defines locusts as ‘a species that can breed rapidly under suitable conditions and subsequently become gregarious and migratory. They form bands and rapidly strip fields and people. They have migrated after leaving a trail of destruction across the gulf region
• The ‘Oh I get a skin rash unless I wear Armani’ Hedge Fund Managers - In the late part of 19th century, this species roamed a certain parts of United States dressed in Stetson, cowboy boots and six gun. In the GCC a few years back these Jacksons, oh I meant these Texans…oops, I meant Hedge Managers were found in plenty investing in one hare brained scheme after the other. The last of this breed now survive in some parts of a place known as Abu Zaby.

Bomb radiation Mutated Species

Nature has an amazing way of evolving newer species from the old. Guess that’s life. The following have been found in large numbers in the region. We believe it is a mutated version of the old species.

• Chinese ‘looking’ Investment managers - Remember, they just look the part. At one instance, we found that one of them turned out to be actually the Nepali security guard of the investment bank who was given a suit by the CEO and taken for his press meetings and pow wow with local HNIs for announcing his Shariah compliant Asian Equity Fund. Today this security guard/fund manager is considered among the top Asian market experts residing in the middle east region.
• Commodities Experts - Suddenly the guy whom you knew as a equity day trader pops up with a visiting card saying Biriyani Rice & Pulses Portfolio Manager for Blue chip asset manager co.He confessed privately to us that he did not lie in the interview to get the job, he just said ‘yes’ and was not allowed to elaborate his answer to a question on ‘Does he have several years of experience in buying of these products,
• ETF Experts - Before the Bomb blast they were hidden away in the back office of a mutual fund and had not even managed to generate a proper NAV weekly is now going to give you an intraday NAV. Now they are ETF structuring experts who plan to generate Real time NAVs.
• Charitable Institution Development Manager - This has been one of Nature’s most interesting mutation. The guy whom you saw as a Private Banker/HNI relationship manager just before the bomb dropped is now chasing you for a meeting to show you some pictures of children starving in third world countries, and ask for some money. Same begging bowl in a different garb, nature’s wonders.

At a time of this economic uncertainty and daily flat stock market pain, we all need some comic relief. What is written above is to be taken only in a light hearted way. What is written above is in no way real and any resemblances to people who are living, extinct or mutated is purely accidental :-)